Entry tags:
I'm gonna go out on a limb...
...and predict that by the end of the year we will see full marriage equality in 4 more states, specifically Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico and New Jersey.
With the county clerk free for all that's going on in NM right now, along with the rulings of two district judges, I cannot help but think that the NM's Supreme Court will have something to say about this by the end of the year. Were it a single county clerk going rogue, slapping the 'wild child' down could happen, but 6 county clerks and 2 district judges affecting over half the state's populace? I think the handwriting is on the wall there.
With the entire Hawai'ian congressional delegation and the state's governor pushing their state legislature, a special session of Hawai'i's legislature looks likely to me. I doubt a special session will happen if the votes are not there, but in this very blue state, I'll be surprised if they aren't.
Similarly, Illinois seems a probability to me this fall. The governor and their senate have made their intentions clear; all that remains is a move in their house. With the ACLU bringing on the former Republican party chair for the state to lobby state republicans, and with the endorsement of Republican Ill. Senator Mark Kirk, I suspect Illinois is on its way to the marriage equality side by X-mas.
Groundwork is going on in NJ, plus current state polls show marriage equality with a strong edge with the populace. While NJ seems to be the least likely of the 4 states to me, due to the strength of their governor and his probably re-election, I would not rule out a rally in their legislature to override his veto of their enacted marriage equality legislation, particularly now that the 3rd section of DOMA is gone. Moreover, with a case before them now, their courts might enact marriage equality, given their state statute on equality treatment of same sex unions, in the wake of the demise of DOMA sect 3.
That's how I see it.
With the county clerk free for all that's going on in NM right now, along with the rulings of two district judges, I cannot help but think that the NM's Supreme Court will have something to say about this by the end of the year. Were it a single county clerk going rogue, slapping the 'wild child' down could happen, but 6 county clerks and 2 district judges affecting over half the state's populace? I think the handwriting is on the wall there.
With the entire Hawai'ian congressional delegation and the state's governor pushing their state legislature, a special session of Hawai'i's legislature looks likely to me. I doubt a special session will happen if the votes are not there, but in this very blue state, I'll be surprised if they aren't.
Similarly, Illinois seems a probability to me this fall. The governor and their senate have made their intentions clear; all that remains is a move in their house. With the ACLU bringing on the former Republican party chair for the state to lobby state republicans, and with the endorsement of Republican Ill. Senator Mark Kirk, I suspect Illinois is on its way to the marriage equality side by X-mas.
Groundwork is going on in NJ, plus current state polls show marriage equality with a strong edge with the populace. While NJ seems to be the least likely of the 4 states to me, due to the strength of their governor and his probably re-election, I would not rule out a rally in their legislature to override his veto of their enacted marriage equality legislation, particularly now that the 3rd section of DOMA is gone. Moreover, with a case before them now, their courts might enact marriage equality, given their state statute on equality treatment of same sex unions, in the wake of the demise of DOMA sect 3.
That's how I see it.