osodecanela (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
osodecanela) wrote2013-08-29 11:25 am
osodecanela) wrote2013-08-29 11:25 am
Entry tags:
I'm gonna go out on a limb...
...and predict that by the end of the year we will see full marriage equality in 4 more states, specifically Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico and New Jersey.
With the county clerk free for all that's going on in NM right now, along with the rulings of two district judges, I cannot help but think that the NM's Supreme Court will have something to say about this by the end of the year. Were it a single county clerk going rogue, slapping the 'wild child' down could happen, but 6 county clerks and 2 district judges affecting over half the state's populace? I think the handwriting is on the wall there.
With the entire Hawai'ian congressional delegation and the state's governor pushing their state legislature, a special session of Hawai'i's legislature looks likely to me. I doubt a special session will happen if the votes are not there, but in this very blue state, I'll be surprised if they aren't.
Similarly, Illinois seems a probability to me this fall. The governor and their senate have made their intentions clear; all that remains is a move in their house. With the ACLU bringing on the former Republican party chair for the state to lobby state republicans, and with the endorsement of Republican Ill. Senator Mark Kirk, I suspect Illinois is on its way to the marriage equality side by X-mas.
Groundwork is going on in NJ, plus current state polls show marriage equality with a strong edge with the populace. While NJ seems to be the least likely of the 4 states to me, due to the strength of their governor and his probably re-election, I would not rule out a rally in their legislature to override his veto of their enacted marriage equality legislation, particularly now that the 3rd section of DOMA is gone. Moreover, with a case before them now, their courts might enact marriage equality, given their state statute on equality treatment of same sex unions, in the wake of the demise of DOMA sect 3.
That's how I see it.
With the county clerk free for all that's going on in NM right now, along with the rulings of two district judges, I cannot help but think that the NM's Supreme Court will have something to say about this by the end of the year. Were it a single county clerk going rogue, slapping the 'wild child' down could happen, but 6 county clerks and 2 district judges affecting over half the state's populace? I think the handwriting is on the wall there.
With the entire Hawai'ian congressional delegation and the state's governor pushing their state legislature, a special session of Hawai'i's legislature looks likely to me. I doubt a special session will happen if the votes are not there, but in this very blue state, I'll be surprised if they aren't.
Similarly, Illinois seems a probability to me this fall. The governor and their senate have made their intentions clear; all that remains is a move in their house. With the ACLU bringing on the former Republican party chair for the state to lobby state republicans, and with the endorsement of Republican Ill. Senator Mark Kirk, I suspect Illinois is on its way to the marriage equality side by X-mas.
Groundwork is going on in NJ, plus current state polls show marriage equality with a strong edge with the populace. While NJ seems to be the least likely of the 4 states to me, due to the strength of their governor and his probably re-election, I would not rule out a rally in their legislature to override his veto of their enacted marriage equality legislation, particularly now that the 3rd section of DOMA is gone. Moreover, with a case before them now, their courts might enact marriage equality, given their state statute on equality treatment of same sex unions, in the wake of the demise of DOMA sect 3.
That's how I see it.
no subject
no subject
no subject
HI will be a sweet win when it happens. Didn't the push for marriage equality start in HI?
IL is close, but I'm still reserved about it. There's no telling how much progress was made on the reluctant House members over the summer.
NJ is still a conundrum for me. The state Supreme Court said, "Fix this. Give same-sex couples all the rights of straight couples." And the legislature went for everything-but-the-name Civil Unions. Well, now those aren't good enough. The Obama administration has said, "It has to be called marriage" in order to get Federal recognition. If the legislature and the governor can't get their act together, it seems to me that the court would step in and settle the matter once and for all.
no subject
Give that boy a prize! DOMA was congress' response to what was happening in the Hawai'ian courts back in the mid-90's when it looked that their Supreme Court was going to allow marriage equality. Two of the 3 couples that challenged the state ban on marriage for same gender couples had gotten religious marriages under the care of Honolulu Friends Meeting.
no subject
A note on Hawaii being blue: Republicans are a super-minority. They bear the association with the overthrow of Queen Liliuokalani. As such, the Democrats are largely a party divided. Liberal vs. conservative plays out intra-party because conservatives do not feel like spending their legislative career, toiling in the trenches of irrelevancy. They join the (D) and that's how it plays out.