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[personal profile] osodecanela
So, what's happening in marriage equality this week?

Friday last, Judge Piazza a state judge found the ban on same sex marriage unconstitutional under the state constitution. Couples started getting married on Saturday, and so far the request for a stay on his decision has been denied. Stay tuned for further details here. Unfortunately, while he found the constitutional amendment unconstitutional, he neglected to rule on the state statute that banned county clerks from issuing marriage licenses to same sex couples, so some county clerks have refused to issue those licenses. He will likely remedy that tomorrow, but there is still the chance of a stay being issued one he does.

Yesterday, in Idaho a federal magistrate found that state's marriage ban unconstitutional and a stay in that case has so far been denied. It none is forthcoming by Friday, marriages will begin in Idaho. Any appeal there goes to the 9th circuit, which includes Calif, Hawai'i and Washington, where it's legal already.

Today in Oregon, federal district judge Michael McShane denied NOM's attempt to intervene to defend the ban in that state. They can appeal, BUT, again this is the 9th circuit and given the ruling of SCOTUS in the prop 8 case, based on standing issues, the idea that they will get anywhere defending a state law that the state officials will not defend is ludicrous. McShane is likely to issue his ruling in Oregon fairly soon.

Yesterday in Virgina the 4th circuit heard the appeal of the district court victory from February. One of the judges–Paul Niemeyer–appeared ready to uphold the state’s ban, but the other two leaned towards striking it down, one of them decisively so. And as Judge Niemeyer said, the hearing today in Richmond, Virginia was essentially a “way station” as the case makes its way up Interstate 95 towards Washington, D.C.

So, I'll go out on a limb. Oregon will be next and there will not be an appeal there. I suspect Virginia will be upheld by the 4th circuit, and that SCOTUS won't take that one given the AG and Governor not wishing to appeal it. My gut is all the appellate hearings in progress now will uphold the lower district courts if they rule on the merits. There is a chance that Oklahoma might get overturned on standing issues. I suspect the what will ultimately end up in front of SCOTUS will more likely be Michigan or Texas (or both). We'll see. I'm not yet willing to predict if it will be in '14-'15 or '15-'16

Date: 2014-05-16 05:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jharish.livejournal.com
Completely unrelated to your post, I just found out there is a place called Weaverville.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weaverville,_California

Date: 2014-05-19 09:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bob-garwood.livejournal.com
You were correct about Oregon!

Date: 2014-05-19 09:16 pm (UTC)

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